Monday, June 30, 2008


National budget deficit--total debt as a percentage of GDP:

about 65% as of 2007

image source: http://zfacts.com/p/318.html
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2009/pdf/hist.pdf
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

U.S. National Debt


Here is the link to infomation on the U.S. national debt:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

Actually, Japan owns more U.S. securities than China, and Taiwan owns a fairly small amount compared to other countries.

Steven Shieh

MarketWatch Stock Trading Game

Hello Everyone! Hope you all had a good time in San Francisco!

As part of your assignments for this session, I want all your teams to open an account with this stock game. Many of you have done so all ready. Please thank Sarahi effusely for setting this up for all of us! There are three major aspects about this Assignment:

I. Team Portfolio
You will manage a portfolio, starting at $1 Million, in play money. The goal of the exercise is two fold: Start to get you to understand the market, but even more important, start to get you to think analytically about your decisions.

II. Trading Blog
A major part of your homework from now on will be to make trades in your portfolio. But before making a Trade, you will need to record your reseaons as to why you are making a particular trade in a journal like "Trading Blog" which I will create for you and link off of your company websites.

N.B.: Trading Blogs will only be accessible to your other team members, me, and your counselors for review, in order to protect your trading strategies.

In this "Trading Blog" I want you to write down the key reasons why you are making a trade. Cite your sources for your data. While you do not have to share the information you found that impacted your trade, it is strongly encouraged that after you find some useful sites, to share them with the other teams here on our class Blog.

This habit of writing down your reasoning before and after your trade will help make you rich!!!



Don't believe me - believe George Soros - a multibillionaire financier - who wrote a terrific book "The Alchemy of Finance" in which he recorded for two years his trading decisions. Many trades he lost money on, but then on many others won. His goal was to try to become a better trader...and it worked! Many smaller, successful investors also do this process, and over the long run it definitely works. Warren Buffet also is known to follow a similar self-analytical process in order to improve his performance.



III. Combine Trading Blog with your Business Plan Website
In order to incorporate this game into your other major assignment, the building of the Business Plan Website, I want you to select 4 to 5 companies that may impact your business, and include them in your portfolio.

These companies may (or may not) be obvious ones. By developing this list, you are also creating your "Industry Analysis" and "SWOT" analysis for your company. I assure you that successful companies - even (and perhaps especially) small ones, keep tabs on how other companies may impact them. Remember the sagacious title of Intel's Mr. Andy Grove's book "Only the Paranoid Survive"



Here are a couple of quick ideas to get you started:

1. Look at your material suppliers, and service providers

Example: if you make icecream, where do you get the ingredients? Given recent problems in health inspection (i.e., mad cow disease), how will this impact your production costs?

2. Look at the logistics

Example: Will you use DHL, UPS, an/or Fedex to deliver your goods? If so, what will happen to your company's costs if these delivery prices go up, due to say increase in fuel costs for these companies?

3. Dependency on Intellectual Property

Example: Say you wanted to customize SmartCars, or offer custom made videos. How will copyright and trademark laws impact your costs?

4. Availability of Specialized Employees

Example: If you are making clothing using cutting edge technology, you will need Research and Development. Who has this expertise? Do you want to hire them directly, or perhaps do a joint venture and/or licensing with the original inventors?

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Homework- In the news

This is an article i found on forbes about Exxon Mobil

http://www.forbes.com/business/2008/06/25/exxon-valdez-environment-biz-beltway-cx_bw_0625scotus.html

Smart ArtCars

http://marcatiyeh.googlepages.com/

Nike gets more money

Nike got a whole lot of money last quarter, even more than they got in the same quarter last year. $490.5 million, up from nearly $438 million, a 12% increase. That was even more than Wall Street expected, according to CNN. Now they have tons and tons and tons of money, rather than just tons and tons. For more info, see the article at http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/25/news/companies/nike_earnings.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008062517.

No End In Sight On Reliance On Oil

World energy demand will grow 50 percent over the next two decades, oil prices could rise to $186 a barrel and coal will remain the biggest source of electricity despite its effect on global warming, government experts predict.

The Energy Information Administration's long-range forecast to 2030 said the world is not close to abandoning fossil fuels. They will continue to be at the core of energy production in transportation and electricity generation, according to the report released Wednesday.


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gUMV8UJoaN5q_kTW2qE60EkyYQZQD91H98CG4

Scarlett Johansson buys into Fashion Athletic Wear

Actress/Singer/Model/Superstar Scarlett Johansson signed a contract in 2006 to join the arena of fashionable athletic wear with Reebok. She endorsed the "Heart" line, specifically designed to appeal to young women. She joins the league of celebrity endorsements for athletic wear with 50 Cent, Jay-Z, and Mike Skinner.

http://www.thecelebrityblog.com/2006/07/scarlett-johansson-signs-athletic-wear-contract-with-reebok/

Consumer Spending for the Holiday Season

High gas and food prices, along with a suffering house market and stock market will affect this year's consumer spending for the holiday. With a new business like Bodyguard out, and limited brand loyalty and trust, many consumers may be unwilling to buy Bodyguard's products unless they are conveniently affordable.

Link: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080625/ap_on_bi_ge/holiday_outlook_2

AdWords

Adwords offers "pay-per-click" advertising (PPC).The ordering of the paid listings depends on other advertisers' bids (PPC) and the "quality score" of all ads shown for a given search. The quality score is calculated by historical click-through rates and the relevance of an advertiser's ad text and keywords, as determined by Google. In one word, the more hits on an advertisment the more the company pays.

Mark Atiyeh

Postal Service Pinched by Rising Gas Costs

Since our products are web based, transportation is extremely important. With gas prices on the rise, it will make transporting the ice cream more expensive.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,367187,00.html

Behavioral Economics

Traditional economics are based upon the assumption that the individual in business is highly rational, especially in this age of information, education, and technology. A branch of economics, called behavioral economics, tries to understand how the standard economic models are affected when the individuals involved don't know everything, are compassionate, and have limited willpower when it comes to such things as chocolate. In other words, behavioral economics studies the economics of humans, rather than the robot-like persons which we like to believe are making decisions in the field of business. Thus we have the factors of bounded rationality, bounded self-interest, and bounded willpower to consider in the fields of business. Two sites for more information are http://www.iies.su.se/nobel/papers/Encyclopedia%202.0.pdf and http://harvardmagazine.com/2006/03/the-marketplace-of-perce.html.

Cream Creations Target Market

Visit this link to see our target market

http://catherineding418.googlepages.com/targetmarket

This is Stephen posting because I don't have access to the blog. This is my link to my news article

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18946296/

Bodyguard

Bodyguard Home Page: http://xra897.googlepages.com/home

In the News:'Get Smart' outsmarts 'Guru' at US box office

http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/06/22/2008-06-22T172042Z_01_N22403093_RTRIDST_0_BOXOFFICE-UPDATE-1.html


Get Smart does better than predicted while the much criticized movie The Love Guru goes $6 million below Paramount Picture's expectations.

Was Youtube Worth It?

Data shows that Google paid a shocking 100 times revenue for the fast expanding video-sharing website YouTube. Google paid $1.65 billion in stock to acquire YouTube, though the site only produced $15 million in revenues. The problems that are coming along with the website have led many to reconsider whether or not YouTube was worth it.


http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/03/08/was-youtufbe-worth-it/?scp=10&sq=youtube&st=cse

Calif. home sales soar 18% as prices swoon

The median home price is down 35%, but that helped drive the number of sales higher in May.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/25/real_estate/Calif_home_sales_soar/index.htm?postversion=2008062517

Remember....

Adapt or DIE!

Working Moms Opting-out Myth

The trend of mothers that stop working to become household moms are a myth. Only the upper class is part of this trend, and a small percentage of women in the United States are.

http://www.businessweek.com/careers/workingparents/blog/archives/2008/06/the_opting-out.html?chan=top+news_top+news+index_news+%2B+analysis

Search Engine Optimization Primer

http://www.buzzle.com/editorials/4-15-2006-93559.asp

Search Engine Optimization (SEO) is a complex topic with a fairly simple definition: SEO is the science and art of designing a Web site and its content in such a way as to give each Web site page the best chance of being listed and highly ranked by search engines. I describe it as both a science and an art.

New Drilling

To cut the increasing oil prices, Bush has suggested oil drilling in the Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to create a larger supply of oil. Yet many are skeptical that this can affect the oil industry at all in the short-term and questionable in the long-term . Oil exploration and new oil drilling is an enormous investment and would take the oil companies several months at least to decide, and it would take several more years before that supply of oil can reach the market.

link:
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jun2008/db20080619_412349.htm?chan=search

Oil falls $2 after stockpile increase

Oil prices fall after unexpected 800,000 barrel rise in crude stocks; Fed keeps interest rates steady.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/25/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008062515
Safin upsets 3rd seed Djokovic in Wimbledon!!!!
75th ranked Marat Safin defeats 3rd seeded Novak Djokovic in the 2nd round of the tennis world's biggest stage, Wimbledon. This colossal upset sends ripples throughout the endorsement world as Safin may once again become marketable while Djokovic's markebility may be on the downward descent.


http://sports.yahoo.com/ten/news;_ylt=ArGBKAeCoSOyW3gERNszPF44v7YF?slug=ap-wimbledon&prov=ap&type=lgns

Smart Car Vending Machine



http://www.gearlive.com/news/article/q208-smart-car-vending-machine/

In Japan, a Smart Car vending-machine, the first of its kind, was created as a form of practical joke. This vending machine, termed an "incredible marketing ploy," shows how cheap and small a Smart Car actually is and how easy it is for someone to purchase one.

"the comittee goal is to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aSDPH6MGf29U&refer=economy

Key US interest rates have been held at 2% in an expected move, amid signs of continuing problems in the housing market and falling consumer confidence. These acts aim to promote moderate growth over time. The Fed, which is aware of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities, wishes to stabilize the prices of goods and services over time. The Fed is going to need to start hiking interest rates at some point to start to deal with inflation.

Mark Atiyeh

OPEC members

Current OPEC members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Zatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. OPEC normally supplies 40% of the world's oil.

Link: http://www.worldbookonline.com/wb/Article?id=ar714918&st=opec

Electric Cars

This is not really news, but this article highlights five new car models that run entirely on electricity, making them cheap to operate and ushering in a new generation of "green" cars. For SmartArt Cars, these cars may be future competitors considering that they are also green, fuel-efficient cars, like the cars we offer.

Jonathan R

The Wonder of Resilin!

Resilin is found in arthropods, and is related to elastic. Unlike elastic, resilin is far more efficient. This can be extracted from the locust tendon, found in such insects as fleas. This enables them to jump 150 times their body length. The elastic efficiency is reported to be 97%, with a scant 3% being lost to heat. Due to its important use in insects, resilin can contract and expand millions of times. This wonder material was isolated in 2005. Now, scientists have been able to create this amazing substance artificially in the lab. Due to this, it has become much more practical.

links (there are quite a few on that page):
http://www.csiro.au/csiro/search/CSIROau.html?query=resilin&Go=Go&area=all

Start up company failure rates

U.S. - four-year survival rate in the information sector is only 38 percent
- four-year survival rate is 55 percent in the education and health services sector
China - 64.2% of the businesses failed in a 10-year period
- failure rates are 10% for electronics equipment manufacturers
-
failure rates are 90% for Internet or biotechnology-related startups
Palo Alto - 90% failure rate
Silicon Valley - 90% failure rate

ForeverFit

http://nrbhagwat.googlepages.com/businessplan

Forbes Article

Warm temperatures have increased retail sales throughout the United States. The demand for air conditioning units has also exponentially grown. The large increase was due to colder temperatures earlier this summer. Unfortunately mid-market department stores have seen a downturn in their sales. It is hoped that the economic stimulus plan may help in this sector.
http://www.forbes.com/business/retail/2008/06/10/retail-summer-economy-biz-commerce-cx_tvr_0609retail.html

NY Times Business Article-- David Berk

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/26/business/26credit.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

MasterCard Pays $1.8 Billion to American Express MasterCard Worldwide has agreed to pay $1.8 billion to its credit card rival, American Express, to settle claims related to a 2004 antitrust lawsuit.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

AD words primer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AdWords
pretty cool website that randomly gives you slogans
http://www.sloganizer.net/en/
good website for adwords:
https://adwords.google.com/select/Login

good website for search engine optimization:
http://www.google.com/support/webmasters/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=35291

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Cool Websites

Add to this thread some cool websites that you have come across.

Today I saw www.cnn.com/newstome

Interesting "off the shelf" television ads
http://www.mpowermedia.com/

Funky little list of web ideas
http://www.nichegeek.com/10_totally_stupid_online_business_ideas_that_made_someone_rich

Friday, June 6, 2008

Business Class Web Blog

Welcome to the Class Blog for the EPGY Stanford Summer Business Class.

During the first class, you will be assigned to a team. This team over the course of all the classes will develop a Business Plan for a fictional product. On the last day of class you will pass in a completed plan, and make a presentation to the class about your company.

Every day you will also be assigned take home assignments, to do during your study period. These assignments will include an individual task, a group task for the business plan, and an extra credit. These assignments are due the next day.